Obama and the Creative Class

Chris Bowers writes:

I'm looking over the 2008 and 2004 Iowa entrance polls right now. Four years ago, 79% of the Iowa electorate were Democrats. This year, 76% self-identified as Democrats. The huge turnout was just about as Democratic as the 2004 turnout. The new voters were Democrats, not independents. No real surprise in the core of Obama's support. The younger a voter was, the more well-educated a voter was, the higher income a voter was, the more self-identified liberal a voter was, the more likely that voter was to support Obama. It is the same coalition for Obama that people have identified for months. Obama won on the back of the creative class vote.

I think Bowers is right about this. And it seems to me the 2008 election may well turn on class lines. I have long said the central animating issue in American politics is neither partisan polarization nor the culture wars but a festering class divide. Obama may appeal to progressive members of the creative class who swung Iowa, but can that group (roughly a third of the workforce) swing the general election his way. Seems to me there is an even larger group of working and service class people who are frightened, scared, anxious, angry and resentful about what is happening to "their" America.  Critics of my own work have already attempted to reduce the creative class to "yuppies, sophistos, trendoids, and gays."  My hunch is these same types will be all too eager to hang the label "elitist" all over Obama, framing him as a Harvard educated, Washington insider surrounded by a gaggle of Hollywood glitterati backers and the same old  liberal establishment economic advisers (think Robert Rubin and Larry Summers).  If the Democrats (and the creative class) cannot figure a way out of this box - to articulate an inclusive agenda for the future which shows in plain and simple terms how working class and service class people can participate and prosper from the global creative economy, my assessment is that the electoral playing field will remain heavily tilted toward a reinvigorating Republican populism.  Huckabee has the potential to tap into this zeitgeist in a way that could move far beyond the "Reagan democrats." And Obama, despite his personal attractiveness and oratorical skills, runs the risk of being framed as another Gore or even Kerry. I'm just saying ...

Comments

[Michael Wells]

Scary stuff, and I fear you're right.

The problem is when we elect a President, we also choose an administration. Even a creative Huckabee would have very little manuvering room. Any Republican is going to have cabinet members and political appointees tied to the policies of Bush, Bush & Reagan that have damn near bankrupt the country, undercut the creative economy, damaged the environment and in the case of W made us a global pariah. Its been too long since there were rational R's for there to be enough to staff a government -- policies and politics aside.

[Dan Ancona]

Heya Mr. Florida. No idea if you read your comments, but I'd be interested in what you think of this:

http://www.dmiblog.com/archives/2007/10/post_14.html

It was an effort to "articulate an inclusive agenda for the future which shows in plain and simple terms how working class and service class people can participate and prosper from the global creative economy" - quite exactly, in fact. Be curious to hear your thoughts.

[Hayden Fisher]

As always, the most exceptional commentary on the web.

Some more food for thought: http://www.radicalmiddle.com/x_rising_gen.htm , an extremely well-reasoned and written analysis of the X generation, how it thinks and how it will impact the political future and the realities it manifests.

Memo to Boomers-- the XY generation (along with the creative class) is the force behind the Obama surge. It's not about race. It's not about Republicans vs. Democrats. It's not about championing new causes and finding new brickbats to throw. It's about the fielding of the first candidate that appeals to the XY generation and its creative class game-changers intrinsically. He's hip, he's educated, he's talented; he speaks our talk and walks our walk. But if wants to get elected, he needs to offer tangible creative solutions to the many issues that our generation has been left to fix. I personally don't think he will but maybe the next guy will.

Another memo to boomers: XYers are as loyal to political parties as they are their current employers. This whole Democrat vs. Republican obsession appeals to us about as much as the employer vs employee contest did to our predecessors. The whole "company man" paradigm that analysts seem to want to apply to this race misses the point entirely. We don't need to know what political party a candidate hails from to make our decision. 60% of the XY generation defines itself as independent and probably another 25% declares only to further self-interest and pursue opportunities. Sorry for the reality check.

[Zoe B]

It would be wonderful if the XYs' lack of loyalty would break up red/blue polarization. At the local level I (and many others) have found that red-vs-blus is not the most useful way to describe the political scene. For example, around here the blue townie enviro-geeks join with the red county farmers and hunters to protect the environment.

But even if the red/blue divide becomes obsolete, we still have to deal with polarization as the currently accepted style for conducting political business. Will XYs view their opponents as fellow human beings who deserve respect, or is it still cool to denigrate your opponent ad hominem? When an opponent has spoken of you with disrespect, especially in a public setting, you risk being seen as a chump for being willing to compromise. And a lot of problems get stuck in gridlock for lack of a compromise. I think prolonged gridlock can gut the soul of any collectivity.

Obama with his talk of unity does seem to promote the idea of respecting people who disagree with us. If he can model how to respond to political dissing in a way that respects both himself and his opponent, if he can help XYs to see compromise as cool and mean-spiritedness as passe, then we're getting somewhere. Whether he wins, or not.

[hayden fisher]

The point of my comments were not to cast aspersions at the parents of me and my friends and peers; humbly, I hope that no one interpreted them that way. I did intend to point-out some key differences in approach between XYers and Booomers. These differences will creep to the surface more prominently during the next 10 years. Compromise must be achieved. Tension is inevitable. Hopefully the differences will be bridged by a great person like Obama --talented, educated and hip -- but wise enough to reconcile the diverse mindsets we all bring to the table, some of us in a more beating-of-the-table style than others; and smart enough to promote the smart decision-making that has led the US to the super-power position it currently enjoys. Go USA!!!!